After facing the Ravens for the second time in three months, and before facing them again for the second time in eight days, Joe Burrow seemed at peace with his circumstances. More AFC North football, for better or worse, was coming to Cincinnati.
“They know our scheme, they know our guys, they know what we’re trying to do,” the Bengals’ star quarterback said after an offensively challenged 27-16 win Sunday over the Ravens. “They make it tough on us.”
When the division rivals first met this season, their Week 5 “Sunday Night Football” matchup was hailed as a clash of offensive powerhouses. Now, as the third-seeded Bengals and sixth-seeded Ravens prepare for Sunday night’s AFC wild-card-round game at Paycor Stadium, the offensive limitations in their first-ever playoff matchup seem just as pronounced.
In Baltimore, the Ravens are hoping for the return of a healthy Lamar Jackson at quarterback and the rejuvenation of an offense that hasn’t eclipsed 20 points in a game since Week 12.
In Cincinnati, the Bengals are looking for better answers against a defense that has twice tossed a stick in the spokes of their whirring attack.
Cincinnati was good enough to win comfortably Sunday, keeping the Ravens and undrafted rookie quarterback Anthony Brown at bay after sprinting out to an early 17-0 lead. But it wasn’t because of its offense. The Bengals’ eighth straight victory was maybe the unit’s least impressive showing all year.
Against a defense missing two of its top three cornerbacks, Cincinnati finished with its worst per-play average of expected points added, its worst offensive success rate and its worst third-down conversion rate of the season, according to TruMedia.
(EPA is a measure of efficiency that accounts for situational factors such as down, distance and field position, while a defense’s run success rate is measured by how often it stops an offense from gaining at least 40% of the yards to go on first down, 60% of the yards to go on second down, and 100% of the yards to go on third or fourth down.)
There’s not a blueprint to stop an offense as talented as the Bengals’, but the Ravens and coordinator Mike Macdonald have at least made life difficult. In their first meeting, they denied Burrow his deep shots. In their second, they took away Cincinnati’s resurgent rushing attack.
In their third, they should have cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Brandon Stephens back in a secondary talented enough to compete with the Bengals’ elite receiving corps. They should have a pass rush bolstered by the late-season improvements of outside linebackers Odafe Oweh and David Ojabo. And they should have an advantage against a Cincinnati offensive line weakened by injuries.
“We’ll know these guys inside and out, so it’s just going to be about coming out, doing what we have to do to make sure that we’re victorious,” inside linebacker Roquan Smith said Sunday.
Here’s how they can do it.
Stop the run
In Week 5, Cincinnati’s most reliable offense was its rushing offense. Running backs Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine combined for 95 yards on 17 carries (5.6 per attempt) against a Ravens defense hamstrung by poor linebacker play and the threat of the Bengals’ passing game.
Starting with its 19-17 loss that night, Cincinnati started to figure things out on the ground. Over its first four weeks of the season, the Bengals’ rushing offense had ranked 26th in efficiency, according to Football Outsiders. But with smarter play-calling and better offensive line play, the unit soon took off, ranking second overall in efficiency from Week 5 through the end of the regular season.
That momentum did Cincinnati no good Sunday, though. The Bengals rarely found daylight up front, finishing with 20 carries for 55 yards (2.8 per carry). They averaged just 0.15 yards before contact per rush, their second-lowest rate of the season, and had a rushing success rate of 20%, according to TruMedia.
Against light boxes (six or fewer defenders), Cincinnati was especially unproductive: eight carries for 27 yards and no first downs, minus-0.25 yards before contact per rush and a 14.3% success rate.
It won’t be any easier in Round 3. In Week 16, the Bengals lost right tackle La’el Collins to a season-ending knee injury. On Sunday, right guard Alex Cappa, maybe the offensive line’s top starter, suffered a third-quarter ankle injury and did not return. Coach Zac Taylor said Monday that it would be “tough” for him to play Sunday.
“He’s really been playing unbelievable all year,” Burrow said Sunday of Cappa.
Pressure with precision
Like every quarterback, Burrow struggles when he’s under duress. But his rhythm and timing have proven especially fundamental to Cincinnati’s success this year. Burrow was pressured on at least 7.9% of his drop-backs in just four regular-season games, and the Bengals lost all four.
The challenge for Macdonald is figuring out how to bother a quarterback with one of the NFL’s quickest triggers and most dangerous group of receivers. In Week 5, Burrow was blitzed just once on his 37 drop-backs in Baltimore, according to TruMedia — and punished the Ravens with a short completion that wide receiver Mike Thomas turned into a 33-yard catch-and-run.
On Sunday, Burrow was blitzed three times on his 45 drop-backs — and turned one of those opportunities for single coverage downfield into a 26-yard touchdown to wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase. (He finished 1-for-3 overall on plays with five or more Ravens pass rushers.)
Without an elite pass rusher to tear into Cincinnati’s pocket, the Ravens have had to rely on the element of surprise to gain the upper hand. They’ve asked inside linebacker Patrick Queen to threaten a pass rush, only to have him retreat at the snap as Smith tears downhill from the other side of the line. They’ve sent safety Kyle Hamilton after Burrow from his position in the slot. They’ve shown coverages with the deep middle of the field closed before the snap, then spun into a look with the deep middle of the field open after the snap.
Their presnap posturing has, from time to time, seemingly pushed the Bengals into unproductive play calls. On Sunday, perhaps eager to punish second-level defenders amassing near the line of scrimmage, Cincinnati had Burrow throw five screen passes. With pressure rarely coming, he completed four for just 6 yards total, according to Sports Info Solutions.
The Ravens’ pass rush should have opportunities again Sunday. Burrow’s average time to throw in Week 18 was a typically quick 2.49 seconds, according to TruMedia, and the Ravens still managed 14 pressures, according to Pro Football Focus, the second most Cincinnati’s allowed since October. Oweh and fellow outside linebacker Justin Houston didn’t need long to each get a hand on Burrow for a third-and-5 sack early in the fourth quarter.
Stay zoned in
If Burrow’s two games against this Ravens defense have taught him anything, it’s that Macdonald’s approach to pass coverage is unlike his predecessor’s.
In 2020, during Burrow’s first game against then-defensive coordinator Don “Wink” Martindale, he dropped back 15 times against man-to-man coverage. A year later, in their second encounter, Burrow dropped back 23 times against man looks.
Under Macdonald, the Ravens have adopted a more conventional approach: fewer blitzes, more zone looks. In Burrow’s first matchup with Macdonald, he saw just eight man-to-man snaps. In his second? Just one, a season low.
Sometimes, less is more. The Ravens changed up their zone coverages effectively Sunday, relying on a mix of one-high-safety shells (13 snaps) and two-high-safety shells (28 snaps) and cycling between standard and exotic-looking zone packages. Ojabo’s strip-sack in the third quarter came after Burrow found himself with nowhere to throw downfield, the Ravens’ pass coverage having handed off every route with precision.
“I think the time on task — practice, in games and meetings — these guys being 100% focused and locked in on building what we’re trying to build on that side of the ball has been very effective, and it’s showing up in the way we’re playing,” coach John Harbaugh said Monday. “It’s been very impressive. But no one is sitting on their hands.”
Get lucky
The Ravens will need some good fortune Sunday, especially if Jackson can’t play. They enjoyed some this past weekend. Missed throws, dropped balls and poor execution marred the Bengals’ aerial attack, rare mistakes from an otherwise reliable passing offense.
In the first quarter, Burrow underthrew Chase on a would-be 45-yard touchdown pass, his arm strength undercut just enough by onrushing defensive lineman Justin Madubuike.
In the second quarter, Burrow faked a screen pass to spring wide receiver Tee Higgins open downfield, only to miss him badly on a deep shot. (Burrow connected with Chase on the next play for a 26-yard touchdown pass.) In the third quarter, Burrow watched a well-placed deep shot down the right sideline slip through Higgins’ hands, leading to a Bengals punt.
Those missteps amounted to little of consequence Sunday. Cincinnati got the result it wanted: a win over a division rival and a home playoff game. But it wasn’t what Burrow expected from himself or his offense.
“Did not like the way I played today,” he said afterward. “I missed throws I usually make, but I won’t miss those again.”
jonas.shaffer@thebaltimorebanner.com
This story has been updated to correct the score of the Bengals’ Sunday win over the Ravens.
